Peddlers of the Green New Deal
know that the only way for their radical agenda to become reality is if
Americans buy into the wildest claims of climate extremists.
It’s
clear that some of the most enthusiastic supporters of this radical agenda are
young people.
This was
on full display in the now viral video of a meeting between Sen. Dianne
Feinstein, D-Calif., and a group of children from the Sunrise Movement.
Perhaps children and young
Americans are more likely to buy into the extreme environmentalist doomsaying
due to the fact that they weren’t around for the laughably wrong predictions of
the past that never came true.
Panics
over looming environmental and climate apocalypse have been with us for a long
time. Thomas Malthus famously predicted in his 1798 book “An Essay on the Principle
of Population” that population growth would overtake food supply and
mass starvation would result unless population controls were implemented.
Of
course, his predictions were utterly wrong, since free enterprise greatly
increased the food supply as the population increased.
The
modern environmentalist movement has picked up a Malthusian ethos of its own
and, when combined with the politics of climate change, has produced numerous
egregiously wrong predictions about global trends.
Here are
five of the biggest misses:
1. Population Bomb to Cause Global Famine by 2000
The
first Earth Day, in 1970, was filled with hyperbole and exaggerations about
mankind’s future. Much of the craziness was unearthed in a remarkable expose
in 2000 by Reason contributor Ronald Bailey.
One of
the most common ideas, in a throwback to Malthus, was that the global food
supply simply couldn’t keep up with population growth.
Peter
Gunter, a professor at North Texas State University—now named the University of
North Texas—wrote about how mass starvation was in the world’s near-term
future. Gunter spoke in language that should be all too familiar to those who
have paid attention to the debate over climate change in modern times:
Demographers agree almost unanimously on the
following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these
will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East,
Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will
exist under famine conditions. … By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the
entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and
Australia, will be in famine.
Ah, yes,
all the scientists agree that the world will end by the year 2000.
Of
course, this didn’t come to pass. In fact, a remarkable reduction in poverty
has occurred around the globe since 1970. A chart published by Human Progress
demonstrated just how dramatically global hunger has decreased in the past few
decades.
Thanks, capitalism.
2. Air Pollution Will Be So Bad That City Dwellers Will Have
to Wear Gas Masks
Another
grand prediction at Earth Day 1970 (it was full of doozies) was that the air
pollution problem common to many American cities would continue to get
exponentially worse without widespread government control of the American way
of life.
One
particularly extreme claim came from the January 1970 edition of Life magazine,
as quoted by Bailey:
Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical
evidence to support … the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers
will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution [and] by 1985 air
pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half.
Again,
such remarkable accuracy from these all-knowing scientists.
This
didn’t happen, in part due to federal, state, and local restrictions on
emissions. But it had much more to do with the general societal response to the
problem.
Wealthier,
more prosperous societies simply have more means and more of an inclination to
make trade-offs to enjoy cleaner air. Free societies such as the United States
found ways to reduce pollutants as a means to improve quality of life.
It’s
very different in countries like, say, China, where pollution in some cities is
unbearable due to the developing nature of the country combined with the
authoritarian nature of government, which is more preoccupied with growth in
gross domestic product than the comfort and well-being of individual citizens.
The fact
is, free societies began solving this problem long ago, and our cities have
become much better, not worse.
3. Entire Nations Could Be Wiped Out by 1999
Rep.
Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, D-N.Y., a self-avowed socialist, recently claimed
that the world would end in 12 years if we don’t radically transform our
economy to combat climate change.
The
decadelong window of pronounced doom seems to be a favorite among climate
alarmists.
A
recently resurfaced report from the Associated Press shows how an almost
identical, but more precise, prediction was once made by a high-ranking United
Nations official in 1989.
AP reported: “A
senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the
face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not
reversed by the year 2000.”
Noel
Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, claimed
in 1989 that human beings had a mere 10 years to stop the effects of global
warming.
Brown
said: “Ecological refugees will become a major concern, and what’s worse is you
may find that people can move to drier ground, but the soils and the natural
resources may not support life. Africa doesn’t have to worry about land, but
would you want to live in the Sahara?”
Brown
pronounced doom for Canada and the United States, where the entire East Coast
would be flooded and conditions would be like the 1930s Dust Bowl.
But fear
not, Brown did offer hope to humanity: He also predicted that the Soviet Union
might produce “bumper crops” during this time.
4. Ice Caps Will Melt Away
Predictions
about the polar ice caps melting have been common. Dramatic pictures of polar bears
floating on tiny icebergs have been some of the iconic images of the climate
change movement.
Former
Vice President Al Gore said at a conference in 2009 that
a scientist predicted a “75 percent chance that the entire polar ice cap during
some of the summer months could be completely ice free within five to seven
years.”
In 2014,
the ice caps were still there. In fact, it’s 2019 and the ice caps are still
there.
Gore
wasn’t the only one to make such bold prognostications about the future of
Arctic ice.
In his
book “A Farewell to Ice,” Peter Wadhams, a professor of ocean physics at
Cambridge University, predicted that polar ice in the Arctic would be gone by
mid-decade.
Not only
have the ice caps survived these predictions of doom, but they have
occasionally grown in size. Between 2012 and 2016, Arctic ice increased from an
average of 2.2 million square miles to 3.3 million square miles, according to
The Telegraph.
5. The Coming Ice Age
In 1958,
Betty Friedan, one of the leading thinkers of radical, modern feminism, wrote an article in Harper’s
magazine describing the “coming ice age.”
It seems
the mixing of climate science and radical left-wing politics is nothing new.
Friedan
based her article on the work of two scientists, geophysicist Maurice Ewing,
director of Columbia University’s Lamont Geological Observatory, and
geologist-meteorologist William Donn.
She
explained how these scientists foresaw American port cities being drowned by
rising oceans, and how a giant glacier would cover Europe and North America.
The scientists described conditions by which the earth would dramatically warm
and then cool, sending us into another ice age.
These
scientists were more cautious in their predictions than others, but this didn’t
stop Friedan from speculating that, based on their calculations about the rate
of warming, a layman could conclude that “the Arctic Ocean will be open and the
Ice Age [will] begin in another twenty years.”
As Iain
Calder wrote in
Newsmax, this was just part of a tide of predictions about how a looming ice
age soon was going to plunge the world into a deep freeze. Calder wrote:
Between 1973 and 1977 the great Time magazine had
a number of blaring Page One covers like: ‘The Cooling of America,’ ‘The Big
Freeze’ and ‘How to Survive the Coming Ice Age’ (with a subhead: ‘Things You
Can Do to Make a Difference.’)
Needless
to say, despite the chilly winter, the ice caps are still with us and the new
ice age hasn’t come.
If
there’s a lesson to be learned from all of these predictions, it’s not that
scientists are always wrong or that we shouldn’t be good stewards of the
environment. Instead, we should treat extreme predictions with skepticism,
especially if they mean upending our way of life.
We
should be particularly suspicious of schemes such as the Green New Deal, which
would entirely derail the American economy and place it under the power of
government.
One way
or another, free societies will do a better job of adapting to any change in
climate than the Venezuelas of the world, where the folly of man causes
starvation and not natural disaster.